CAD in the future

Forum|Forum|15 years ago
December 16, 2010
5 replies
1466 views

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Hey Pro/E peeps:

Before Rick starts to
rail about this not being the right form let me state that I don’t have another
one where people are all at least familiar with Pro/E. This is the first time
I’ve really felt confused about what’s going on for us Pro/E users and I need
your opinion to make a decision. Not to reminisce, but there was a time here
when a bad day was when only 2 recruiters posted a job. Now we are probably
looking at 2 – 3 post per week.

The
point is not to argue about how many post we get or buck up, but are we facing
a fundamental change in our market. I know Solidworks now has a significant
market share. No offense, but it is not quite Pro/E, more to the point it pays
less and is aimed at providing a cheaper solution. But this is definitely
taking Pro/E jobs away. That’s understandable; I’m not knocking Solidworks. But
Solidworks jobs are disappearing to. It seems that outsourcing in the CAD
market for all design packages is growing each and ever year.

A
shift of just 2 – 3% of the market can make the difference between having
multiple jobs to nothing available for months at a time. What I want to know is
do you people think this is the new way and its only going to continue? Or do
you think we are at the trough of this change and Pro/E with most of the rest
of the CAD market will bounce back soon in the USA? I want your real thoughts
whether I like it or not I’d really appreciate hearing it. What would any of
you tell your kid if he said, “I want to be a CAD person as an occupation now?
Thank you, I value your opinions because no one is closer to this change than
you are.

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Surfacing

frederick.burke

1-Visitor

Hi Jim,

The job market is a cycle. Contractors are for load leveling.

You need to add contractors at the top of the market because it is not sustainable.

And you need them at the bottom of the cycle because you can kickstart projects with them.

(basically using them to fill in the holes left by the company’s layoffs)

Now outsource 20% of those jobs. It just moves the curve lower.

That means that in the short term, (6 months – 2 years) we should be ready for a landslide of contractor positions to open.

When that happens, rates will get more competitive because of supply and demand.

In the short term, we should be OK.

In the long term, none of us will be OK. There is no job you can recommend to a child that will be a safe place to go.

Possibly medical doctor or nurse only because they are service jobs that cannot be outsourced.

However, the healthcare reform could very well make it intolerable to be either of those even.

So, we can see a tidal wave coming… We can sit down and give up and whine about it, or we can talk to an adaptation expert: You!

We all need to tap into the young industry professional mentality that we had to be when we learned Pro/E.

That person was thinking: “This is the next big thing, it is rough, it hurts, but if I get it, there is no stopping me!”

How do I ride the wave? You can start a business. If you aren’t working right now, it is the perfect time! Nothing to lose!

There are a huge number of folks that would work for you for free right now for a piece of the business…

If all of your employees were free, it is pretty easy to succeed.

There is a downside to being an engineer. You have been trained to focus on product. As a business owner, you have to put at

Least half of your energy and resources into marketing. Think of Carl’s Jr (Hardee’s) as 50% product and 50% marketing.

Think of McDonalds as 10% product and 90% marketing. You might prefer to eat at Carl’s Jr, but you are better off owning McDonalds.

The bottom line is that poorer countries will always produce cheaper ditch diggers.

If you want to keep digging ditches, you have three choices: start a ditch digging business or manage the ditch diggers or accept a lower wage.

The transition is going to be painful, but if anyone can do it, they are the people reading this post.

You just have to become the person you were when you were learning Pro/E.

Best regards and Happy Holidays,

Frederick Burke

ksauter

1-Visitor

We have far more serious problems than just worrying about the CAD
market coming back. I've been out of work for six months and it's not
because I've been sitting around doing nothing. I just searched for
opto-mechanical designer jobs on jobs.com and came up with nothing. The
results are similar on other job boards. I find one or two jobs across
the entire country, and they want specific qualifications that limit
candidates. Those jobs have all moved to India, China, and Singapore.

What we're looking at has everything to do with big corporations sending
manufacturing offshore to save money (due to tax policy that favors
that). What they didn't talk about when they shipped mfg overseas was
the fact that engineering jobs inevitably follow manufacturing. That is
what has happened. Michelle Nash-Hoff has written a good book about the
situation titled "Can American Manufacturing Be Saved? Why We Should
And How We Can" and does a very good job of laying out out how we got to
where we are and where we're headed if our government doesn't pull its
head out of the sand.

If government policy doesn't change drastically, and very soon, we are
looking at a long-term depression or worse. Shadowstats.com puts the
unemployment rate at 22.5%, which puts the lie to the government
numbers. The bad thing is that we have to reverse the damage that's
already been done even after massive changes to government policy, IF
the policies change. I don't see that happening.

Ken Sauter

pgress

1-Visitor

The government counts unemployment numbers from registered unemployment benefits. When your benefits run out, your not unemployed. Simple, black and white. This is why the percentage numbers vary so much from reality.

Paul

Cosmo

1-Visitor

Hi Jim,
There is no right answer here.
I think Mr. Burke is correct to some extent. No job is truly "safe" unless you perform a service that cannot be exported. Even doctors work globally now, using web technology to provide services to customers all around the world (think cruise ships).
Adding skills to your repertoire will always make you more valuable. But value is relative. This is why people that are being hired back into the workforce are usually coming in at less pay (plus supply and demand). These days, the jack of all trades is more valuable than the master of one trade. My recommendation would be to broaden your spectrum of knowledge as much as possible. This should at least keep you employed....but not necessarily increase your pay.
Unfortunately, outsourcing to other countries is primarily a financial decision. I don't think any other country has a greater skill set than the U.S. (but I could be wrong...this has just been my experience). They're typically just less expensive to operate in. I believe we are seeing a "normalization" occurring. Workers' pay in the U.S. is dropping to meet the pay of other countries (hence, the lack of demand in U.S. employment) while other countries are increasing pay because of their increased demand in their countries. Frankly, it sucks.
If a company purposely decides to move a manufacturing facility from the U.S. and put it in a communist country simply to avoid paying taxes, I'd say they have their priorities messed up. Personally, I believe it's more the labor costs than the tax policy we have in the U.S. I actually believe our corporate tax policies are pretty lenient which is why big energy companies get refunds instead of a tax bill.
Also, other countries don't have the same labor laws, safety regulations, environmental regulations, etc. that we have here in the U.S. So if a company is willing to bypass the protections we have in place in the U.S. simply to lower their cost of doing business, well....they have to live with that decision. Personally, I couldn't make a decision like that in good conscience if I were running a company but perhaps that's why I'm not running a business right now. I still think they have their priorities messed up though.
I've been seeing in the news lately that some major U.S. companies that have manufacturing facilities in China are being strong-armed into moving more critical functions like R&D and technology centers over there as well. China is saying "If you want to continue manufacturing here, you need to start designing here too." It's one thing to manufacture in another country....it's a completely different thing to move all your brains and IP over to another country.It's not saying that I am a super-nationalist and believe that we should be doing everything ourselves here in the U.S. There are certainly benefits to a global economy. But the playing field has to be fair and level. It currently is not. It's not just our govt's policies....but countries like China need to change as well.
To get back to your original question.......
As a whole, I believe the economy is starting to come back. The news agencies all report that there are a ton of companies out there with a LOT of money in the bank. They just haven't decided to spend it yet on new-hires. So the job opportunities will continue to grow overall over time. They may not be the same pay or even the same role as before. There is a lot of variability here.
I don't think the number of jobs related to a CAD software will vary much by CAD product. I don't think many companies are switching CAD systems these days because of the economy and a poor value proposition for switching. So I don't believe the jobs being posted are because a company is switching to a new system. I think you may see more SolidWorks positions because the companies that tend to hire and take risk are small businesses. Generally speaking, small businesses tend to lean towards SolidWorks. And there are a lot more small businesses than large businesses. I think PTC is trying to change this but it's not a fun market to sell in....very challenging to prove one 3D system over another (even though the die hard CAD guys know there is a big difference). Small businesses also generally don't have the finances to invest in business systems like Windchill so the management/collaboration side of the sales pitch falls short here too. These are my own opinions of course.
Personally, I think that SolidWorks has done more to harm your job prospects than help them. They've created this whole idea/concept of a "CAD Monkey"....this idea that CAD is nothing more than making pretty pictures on the screen and that anyone can and should be able to do it. Pro/ENGINEER was designed for engineers to use it....smart people....that could use a tool to solve a complex problem. SolidWorks has taken a serious and respectable employment position and turned it into a joke. Of course, once companies had gotten past the initial ease of use in creating a square block on the screen, they started making requests for enhancements and now the SolidWorks interface looks like an eye-chart. It still makes pretty pictures though. And managers like pretty pictures....but you won't get paid much to make a pretty picture.
Mike -

frederick.burke

1-Visitor

Hi Mike,

You made one huge mistake in your post.

"I don't think any other country has a greater skill set than the U.S.
(but I could be wrong...this has just been my experience)."

You can be sure that no other country has a greater skill set.

This is not a matter of "U.S. is the best! U.S. is the best!"

It is because of our strategy. The U.S. takes the best the world has to
offer and makes it their own.

I often refer to the difference between an American engineer and an
Indian Engineer by their college experience.

The American engineer in college is wondering where the next keg party
is. The Indian engineer in college is

stepping over starving people in the streets to get to school. Who is
more motivated? Who is getting the better education?

On the other hand, many Indian engineers are also working hard so they
can live the American dream someday.

We don't have to choose which is best... we get both of them!

Make the home grown American engineer a manager so he doesn't screw
anything up! J

It is easy to complain about outsourcing, but complaining takes all of
your power away.

When you complain you are telling the world,

"I am not smart enough to adapt to the new economy."

"I am not brave enough to take the next step I know I have to take."

And you are right 100% of the time.

What if, instead of complaining, you sent $10 to godaddy.com, and $300
to a website developer in India.

Then spend some time learning to draw traffic to your website.

After a couple years, sell your website for $100 million.

Then repeat and keep 20 websites for sale at all times.

Take your $100 million and hire some of your Pro/E buddies back at some
old school wages baby!

None of it is difficult, it just takes some courage to take the first
step, and the next, and the next...

It is a great time for New Year's resolutions!

Very respectfully,

Frederick Burke

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