simulation hypothesis

Hello,

Could someone please explain how equation 1 is arrived at, in the attached Mathcad file. The Simulation Hypothesis posits that we are living in a computer simulation writen by our posthuman (ie. in the far future) selves. The statistical analysis is based on the following (taken from the Abstract of the paper in the Reference, at the end of the Mathcad document):

This paper argues that at least one of the following propositions is true:

(1) the human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a “posthuman” stage;

(2) any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof);

(3) we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation.

It follows that the belief that there is a significant chance that we will one day become posthumans who run ancestor-simulations is false, unless we are currently living in a simulation.

Thanks.

Peter

[PS: my opologies for the web URL, (in the Reference of the Mathcad document) not being a hyperlink but the Insert hyperlink in my Mathcad 15 (15.0.0.436) does not work. Does it work in later revisions?]